Introduction: When “Probable” Means Plan for the Worst
The Bondi Beach attack underlined a brutal truth: Australia’s terrorism threat level is now (and has been for some time) PROBABLE—meaning there’s a greater than 50% chance of attack or attack planning within the next 12 months. That formal uplift occurred on 5 August 2024, and the current advisory system continues to list the national level as PROBABLE. This isn’t alarmism; it’s official doctrine intended to guide preparedness and risk controls for owners and operators of crowded places.
Why it matters: When we, as security consultants, reference terrorism risk in assessments, some stakeholders may call it “overboard.” But the government’s own system exists to communicate likelihood and to prompt precautionary action—and public places and major events remain attractive targets for low-cost, high-impact tactics.
Your Duty of Care: ANZCTC’s Crowded Places Strategy & Active Armed Offender Guidance
The Australia–New Zealand Counter‑Terrorism Committee (ANZCTC) is explicit: owners and operators have the primary responsibility to protect their sites, with proportionate, layered measures that preserve public enjoyment while mitigating foreseeable threats. The 2023 Crowded Places Strategy and the Active Armed Offender Guidelines (2023) provide the national framework (PPRR: Prevention, Preparedness, Response, Recovery), supported by practical tools such as the Crowded Places Security Audit and Self-Assessment.
Key takeaways from ANZCTC guidance:
- Layered security (deter–detect–delay–respond) across perimeter, access, and interiors.
- Disrupting hostile reconnaissance through vigilant staff and technology.
- Pre-planned communications and recovery strategies to maintain public confidence.
Mandatory Mindset: Make Threat & Risk Assessments Non-Negotiable
All publicly accessible places (transport hubs, beaches, parks, malls) and all events likely to increase crowd density or symbolic value should undergo a formal terrorism threat and risk assessment, refreshed for each event profile. Crowd volume, visibility, timing (e.g., religious festivals), and geopolitical context can temporarily raise the local threat profile, warranting additional controls and resources.
ANZCTC’s Crowded Places Strategy, supported by state guidance, frames exactly how owners/operators should prioritise risks and proportionate measures; this is not optional if you hold a duty of care.
Innovative Approaches: Beyond Guards and Cameras
To move the needle, combine policy and procedure with modern, intelligence-led technology. Below are innovation areas that align with ANZCTC, ASIS, CISA, and NFPA best practices:
- Real‑Time, Multi-Channel Mass Notification
Seconds save lives. Integrate voice evacuation systems, SMS/app alerts, geo-targeted push notifications, and PA override. ASIS’s 2024 research shows communication speed is among the top issues; more organisations now achieve a second-level alerting. - Behavioural & Reconnaissance Detection
Train staff to spot hostile reconnaissance (loitering, mapping exits, unusual filming) and pair with AI-assisted video analytics tuned for pre-incident indicators. This directly supports ANZCTC guidance on reconnaissance disruption. - Acoustic Gunshot Detection & Directional Audio
Deploy arrays that classify impulse sounds, triangulate source, and auto‑trigger lockdown/notifications—accelerating response under NFPA 3000’s integrated, unified command concept. - Digital Twins for Events & Venues
Build an operational “twin” to run tabletop exercises, evacuation routing, and crowd‑flow stress tests; update for each event’s profile to refine guard posts, egress, and comms paths. Integrates with ANZCTC’s layered security and PPRR. - OSINT & Social Listening for Early Warning
Use curated, privacy-compliant tools to flag pre-attack leakage, threats, grievance narratives, or coordination signals, then liaise with police/intelligence via established channels (CISA emphasises pre-incident recognition and engagement). - CPTED & Event‑Specific Design Adjustments
Re-shape space: bollards, limited vehicle approaches, sightlines from overwatch points, and controlled chokepoints with rapid bypass lanes for emergencies. Aligns with ANZCTC and state CPTED resources for crowded places. - Rescue Task Force Integration & Medical Readiness
Align venue SOPs with NFPA 3000 (ASHER): warm-zone medical access, unified command, and whole-community drills; stock bleeding-control kits at high-density hotspots. - Decision Support Dashboards
Fuse cameras, access control, counter‑drone alerts, and comms into a single Common Operating Picture so incident commanders can act in seconds, not minutes—echoing ASIS’s emphasis on communication and coordination.
Preparedness: Make Training Continuous and Scenario‑Rich
- Live exercises with police/EMS under NFPA 3000 principles (unified command, integrated response, planned recovery).
- Staff drills for “Escape. Hide. Tell.” with role clarity for ushers, volunteers, and contractors (reinforced by ANZCTC & state guidance).
- Tabletop simulations for different crowd profiles (weekday vs. festival, religious events, celebrity appearances), updating security posture each time.
Response & Recovery: Seconds Count, Weeks Matter
- Immediate actions: Lockdown where viable, dynamic evacuation, live wayfinding via screens/apps, and two-way updates to staff and public. ASIS’s research and CISA’s action guides show that rapid, multi-channel communication is decisive.
- Recovery: Crisis comms templates, media coordination, family reunification plans, and business continuity pre-built into SOPs. Align with ANZCTC PPRR and NFPA’s planned recovery.
Overcoming the “Overboard” Objection: Leadership Must Reset the Baseline
Attitudes must change. Political leaders, venue managers, and people managers should assume a worst-case scenario because that’s how the duty of care is satisfied under national guidance. Australia’s advisory system is designed so organisations scale measures with the threat level; PROBABLE demands proactive planning and investment—not complacency.
- The government explicitly states the threat environment is volatile and primed for low-cost methods (firearms, knives, vehicles, IEDs). Treat that as your design input.
- ANZCTC expects owners/operators to implement layered, proportionate controls; regulators and plaintiffs will ask whether reasonable steps were taken.
- Industry standards (ASIS WVPI/Active Assailant) repeatedly highlight fast messaging and rehearsed response as core risk mitigators.
What Agilient Recommends (Action Plan)
- Mandate a Terrorism Threat & Risk Assessment for every public place you operate or advise, and refresh it for each event that changes crowd density, demographics, or symbolism. Use ANZCTC’s Security Audit and Self-Assessment as a baseline—and extend it with bespoke analysis.
- Implement a Layered Security Program (policy, people, tech, design), mapped to PPRR and backed by drills under NFPA 3000 and ASIS guidance.
- Invest in Innovative Capabilities: mass notification, AI analytics, gunshot detection, digital twins, CPTED, OSINT monitoring, integrated into a single Common Operating Picture.
- Change the Culture: Board-level briefings that tie duty of care to the national threat level and explicitly resource proactive measures. Reference the National Terrorism Threat Advisory System in policy.
Helpful, Official Resources
- Current National Terrorism Threat Level (PROBABLE) – Australian National Security: nationalsecurity.gov.au
- Threat Level Raised to PROBABLE (5 August 2024) – News archive: nationalsecurity.gov.au
- National Terrorism Threat Advisory System – Definitions & fact sheet: nationalsecurity.gov.au
- Australia’s Strategy for Protecting Crowded Places (2023) – ANZCTC: PDF | Overview page: nationalsecurity.gov.au
- Active Armed Offender Guidelines (2023) – ANZCTC: PDF
- Crowded Places Security Audit & Self‑Assessment Tools – Design Out Crime resource links to official docs: designoutcrime.org
- ASIS Active Assailant Preparedness (2024) – Research & report: ASIS
- CISA Active Assailant Security Resources – Action guides for EAP and pre-incident indicators: cisa.gov
- NFPA 3000 (ASHER) – Fact sheet and standard (2024): NFPA
Author: Mark Bezzina, Agilient Consultant